I want to go from Hommlet to the Welkwood bog, but I don't want to get waylaid by any nasty random ambushes. Does it affect the probability of a random encounter if I a) start from East Hommlet instead of the village center, since it looks closer on the map b) journey to the moathouse and then on to the bog thanks!
I dont quite know how the probabilities are calculated. BUT if you have someone in the party with an above average Survival skill you "should" be able to avoid the random encounters in most cases. If that helps you.
a) no, 99% sure. b) It will be about the same, because of distance. The way it works is, there is a 5% chance of an encounter with every "dot" you travel on the Worldmap. (unless someone changed that number when I wasn't looking) However... you do run the risk of actually getting 2 encounters. There is a limit of one random encounter when you travel between any two areas. So you could possibly get one between Hommlet and the Moathouse, and then another one between Moathouse and Welkwood. But if you go directly from Hommlet to Welkwood, you will get no more than one. Also, as you probably know, having the Survival skill can allow you to avoid the encounter sometimes. But keep in mind, the Survival skill of your NPC's don't help you for some reason. (unless that's been fixed with T+)
Adding that in ToEE (with latest Co8 and Temple+) spot, listen and survival are contributing to the random encounter checks. It is highly recommended to have those 3 skills maxed, at least on one character (or spread the burden to multiple PCs). Also you could use rings of invisibility, or stealth-ing all your characters, while travelling. That way, even if you are forced into a random encounter, the enemies will not detect you (they will just blandly stare into the yonder). Ofc for stealth, opposing spot and listen checks will be made by the enemies, so be wary. Another method is to cheese an escape: the moment you get a random encounter immediately press the 'M' key to open the map and select a location to continue your travel. There is a very narrow frame window before initiatives are being rolled.